***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 29.1 0.9 67.4 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 30.5 31.2 29.4 1.2 71.3 62.0 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 30.6 31.4 29.5 1.4 71.3 63.9 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.7 28.3 1.1 71.0 63.0 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 31.3 32.8 28.1 1.3 71.3 63.6 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.0 26.6 1.9 80.4 70.8 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.7 29.0 0.9 68.0 58.9 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.6 20.3 26.8 1.8 76.1 67.7 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.4 31.6 28.3 1.4 73.3 64.3 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.8 31.3 27.2 1.7 75.3 66.7 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 31.8 32.3 28.0 1.7 75.3 67.3 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.6 28.1 1.9 76.5 68.6 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 32.3 33.0 27.7 1.9 78.7 69.4 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 30.9 31.6 28.3 2.0 79.6 69.6 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.9 31.9 29.1 1.3 72.8 66.4 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 32.8 33.5 28.1 1.8 76.1 68.4 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.8 29.1 1.3 73.5 63.1 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.8 30.2 26.5 1.9 76.3 68.1 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 30.6 31.1 29.8 1.6 74.9 65.8 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 26.2 27.1 24.4 1.7 75.7 67.2 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.6 31.3 28.8 1.1 69.9 61.6 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.9 29.4 1.7 78.2 67.3 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.2 29.9 2.0 79.5 70.2 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.1 28.2 1.9 77.9 68.8 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.6 31.5 27.9 1.1 69.0 61.6 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 31.8 32.4 27.7 1.7 74.7 67.9 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 30.4 31.1 28.3 1.0 67.7 59.9 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 32.1 32.1 28.8 1.3 73.2 65.5 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.6 26.3 25.5 1.9 77.6 68.2 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 30.3 31.1 29.4 1.1 69.8 61.0 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------