***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 29.8 1.2 63.6 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 30.3 30.7 30.1 1.5 69.9 67.0 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.2 30.8 30.3 1.7 74.0 67.9 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.6 29.2 1.7 74.2 67.9 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.0 30.8 29.0 1.7 71.9 68.0 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 29.2 31.4 27.8 2.7 87.7 76.5 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 29.9 29.6 29.6 1.1 63.3 64.0 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.4 19.0 27.8 2.3 77.5 72.9 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.1 29.2 1.8 72.7 68.1 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.8 28.2 2.2 76.1 71.0 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 30.3 31.2 29.0 2.2 78.2 72.3 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 29.6 30.4 29.1 2.5 80.0 74.2 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 30.6 31.7 28.8 2.6 82.9 75.0 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 29.8 31.0 29.4 2.7 81.7 74.7 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.6 30.1 2.0 78.8 71.7 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.6 32.4 29.1 2.4 80.5 73.7 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.3 29.9 1.6 74.0 68.7 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.8 27.5 2.4 79.5 72.5 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.5 30.6 2.0 78.1 70.5 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 24.8 25.5 25.6 2.4 75.9 72.6 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 30.2 29.9 29.7 1.5 68.6 65.9 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.5 31.7 30.3 2.2 82.7 72.9 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 30.1 31.2 30.8 2.6 84.5 74.5 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.9 29.2 2.5 81.8 73.0 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.3 28.8 1.5 69.7 66.3 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 30.5 31.1 28.9 2.4 78.2 74.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.3 29.1 1.3 65.8 64.8 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.1 31.5 29.8 2.0 77.6 70.6 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.3 25.3 26.6 2.5 79.4 72.9 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.0 30.1 1.3 67.0 65.5 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------