***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 29.1 0.5 61.2 59.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.8 30.5 29.1 0.5 64.9 60.2 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 31.0 30.8 29.2 0.7 64.0 61.7 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.8 24.8 28.0 1.3 72.3 68.6 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 32.0 32.1 28.3 1.2 69.7 67.5 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 30.7 31.4 26.9 2.4 86.7 80.4 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 30.0 30.3 28.8 0.2 61.8 57.8 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 19.8 20.1 26.9 2.0 78.2 75.7 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.3 28.9 1.2 70.4 67.6 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.1 27.5 1.8 76.5 73.7 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 31.7 31.9 28.3 1.7 75.0 72.8 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 30.7 31.0 28.1 2.1 79.2 76.7 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 31.9 32.5 28.5 2.5 84.7 81.0 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 31.1 31.5 28.9 2.0 78.7 76.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 32.2 32.6 30.2 1.7 75.8 74.1 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 32.9 33.3 28.7 2.2 80.1 77.6 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.3 28.9 0.8 67.0 63.8 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 29.8 30.4 26.9 2.2 81.0 77.7 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 31.0 31.0 29.6 1.0 70.0 65.9 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 26.2 27.0 25.1 2.3 82.0 79.0 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 30.5 30.8 29.2 0.7 62.4 61.2 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 31.2 31.5 29.4 1.3 73.0 69.6 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 31.2 31.8 30.2 1.9 77.1 74.8 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.7 31.2 28.6 1.9 78.7 75.5 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 31.6 31.0 28.2 0.8 63.4 62.9 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 31.4 31.9 28.2 2.5 82.6 80.2 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 31.0 30.5 28.6 0.7 63.8 62.3 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 32.2 32.4 29.2 1.7 75.2 73.2 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 25.9 26.3 26.2 2.3 81.8 78.8 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.1 29.1 0.4 60.5 58.4 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------