***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 0.5 65.9 63.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.3 18.4 0.5 64.7 62.6 15.2 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.9 18.5 0.7 71.6 68.4 17.4 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 14.3 14.5 17.1 0.9 75.8 73.5 12.8 13.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.7 14.9 16.8 0.9 78.2 73.9 13.9 14.1 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 13.8 14.5 15.5 1.4 91.0 84.9 12.9 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.2 18.4 0.4 61.8 59.6 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 9.6 10.1 15.1 1.1 87.4 79.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.3 17.1 0.9 82.2 75.8 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.4 15.6 1.0 85.4 78.0 15.0 15.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 15.6 16.1 16.5 1.1 87.4 80.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 13.8 14.3 16.1 1.3 90.2 82.5 12.6 13.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.9 15.6 15.7 1.3 90.8 85.1 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.5 17.0 17.3 1.2 88.6 80.5 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 17.3 17.8 18.3 1.1 85.1 78.9 16.0 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 16.4 17.3 16.4 1.3 91.1 83.8 15.2 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.7 18.1 0.6 70.3 65.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.3 14.7 14.9 1.1 87.1 79.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 18.6 0.8 73.2 69.5 15.4 15.7 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.1 10.3 13.2 1.0 82.6 76.1 9.2 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.7 17.9 0.7 72.2 68.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.8 18.3 0.8 76.9 70.6 14.8 15.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.7 18.8 1.2 85.9 79.0 14.9 15.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.6 17.0 1.1 88.2 80.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.8 15.9 17.3 0.7 73.9 68.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 15.0 15.7 15.7 1.3 90.9 85.2 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.4 17.8 0.6 70.0 65.6 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 14.7 15.0 17.7 1.1 82.7 78.0 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.3 14.3 1.1 87.1 79.3 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.4 18.6 0.5 63.1 61.5 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------