***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 17.5 0.2 55.5 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.6 17.7 0.4 63.1 55.5 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 17.6 0.5 60.7 57.2 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 11.7 13.4 15.9 0.4 58.7 55.5 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.5 13.7 15.6 0.4 59.9 56.3 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.8 13.2 14.2 0.7 68.3 60.1 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.6 17.5 0.2 59.0 53.2 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.9 9.0 14.0 0.6 63.4 58.6 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.4 16.0 0.5 62.5 57.9 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.8 14.5 0.6 63.7 58.7 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.4 15.4 0.7 64.4 60.2 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.4 13.2 15.0 0.8 66.7 61.1 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.4 14.5 0.8 73.0 62.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.7 16.2 0.8 67.4 61.8 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.3 17.1 0.7 67.2 60.9 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.6 15.2 0.8 69.9 61.6 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.0 17.2 0.4 62.8 56.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 13.8 0.7 65.3 60.1 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.7 17.8 0.6 65.5 58.7 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 9.1 12.2 0.5 59.0 56.4 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.6 16.8 0.3 58.2 55.3 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.7 17.4 0.6 65.8 58.5 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.2 17.8 0.9 69.0 62.8 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.2 15.9 0.8 66.1 61.6 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.9 16.2 0.4 60.2 55.1 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.4 14.7 0.8 67.9 61.9 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.7 16.8 0.3 57.4 54.1 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.7 16.5 0.6 64.2 58.7 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.5 13.2 0.7 64.6 59.5 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.7 16.1 17.7 0.3 59.2 54.7 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------