***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.2 0.5 65.2 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.9 18.2 0.4 59.9 56.9 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.7 18.2 0.6 65.4 60.0 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.1 14.5 16.5 0.4 61.5 57.3 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.9 14.5 16.2 0.5 62.6 58.3 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.7 14.8 0.7 68.4 62.3 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.3 18.1 0.2 59.9 55.2 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.4 14.7 0.9 69.3 63.1 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 16.6 0.6 65.5 60.5 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.1 15.1 0.8 68.9 62.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 16.0 0.8 68.2 61.9 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.7 15.6 0.9 69.9 64.1 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.7 14.9 0.8 67.3 63.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.1 16.9 1.0 75.3 66.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.2 16.9 17.6 0.7 65.4 61.5 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.2 15.7 0.7 67.9 62.3 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.6 17.8 0.4 60.8 57.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.5 14.5 0.8 72.3 63.8 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 18.4 0.7 65.6 60.8 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 12.9 0.8 68.8 61.9 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.4 17.4 0.5 61.0 58.7 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.5 18.1 0.8 66.6 61.3 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.7 16.0 18.5 1.1 75.0 66.1 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.4 16.5 0.9 74.8 64.9 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.8 16.8 0.6 66.9 59.7 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 14.9 14.9 15.1 0.7 71.2 62.0 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.8 17.5 0.5 66.8 58.8 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.3 17.0 0.5 63.3 59.5 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.6 13.9 0.9 72.6 64.2 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.5 18.3 0.4 60.5 56.9 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------