***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 0.8 65.0 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.5 19.2 0.9 70.5 65.5 14.6 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.7 18.7 19.3 1.1 74.7 70.7 17.4 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 14.4 14.8 17.9 1.3 76.9 74.4 12.7 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 15.3 15.6 17.7 1.4 79.2 75.2 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 14.2 15.1 16.5 2.0 89.5 81.3 13.1 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.7 16.7 19.1 0.7 66.2 63.3 15.1 16.0 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.8 10.7 16.1 1.6 85.5 76.9 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.5 16.8 17.9 1.4 80.9 74.4 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.4 16.7 16.5 1.5 84.6 76.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.7 17.5 1.8 87.9 79.8 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 14.3 15.0 17.1 1.9 89.8 80.6 12.9 13.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 15.3 16.3 16.6 1.9 89.4 82.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 17.1 17.9 18.3 1.9 90.8 80.0 15.7 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.5 18.0 18.9 1.6 83.1 77.2 16.2 16.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 17.0 17.8 17.4 1.9 89.0 82.1 15.4 16.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.1 19.0 1.1 72.9 68.1 15.3 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 15.1 15.7 15.8 1.6 86.6 78.1 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.0 19.5 1.3 78.3 71.0 15.3 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.2 14.2 1.5 80.1 74.8 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.4 18.6 1.1 74.5 70.3 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.4 19.2 1.4 80.2 72.8 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.1 19.7 1.8 87.5 78.3 14.3 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.8 17.2 17.9 1.7 88.8 79.2 15.8 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.8 16.9 17.9 1.1 74.5 69.7 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.8 16.7 1.8 87.4 80.9 14.3 15.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.4 18.4 0.9 70.1 66.9 14.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.1 18.5 1.6 80.7 77.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 13.9 14.6 15.3 1.7 86.8 78.0 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.8 17.2 19.3 0.8 68.4 64.5 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------