***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 0.7 60.0 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.8 18.7 0.3 55.8 56.5 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 19.3 18.9 19.0 0.7 62.2 61.9 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.4 17.9 1.4 75.7 73.9 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.3 17.8 1.1 74.3 71.4 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 14.7 16.2 16.6 2.0 92.0 87.2 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.7 17.0 18.8 0.3 55.1 54.8 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.8 15.7 1.3 79.0 75.2 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.2 18.1 1.2 71.0 71.6 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.4 16.4 1.2 74.5 72.4 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.8 17.3 1.2 74.9 73.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.2 16.6 1.4 80.5 77.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 16.0 17.0 16.7 1.6 86.2 82.2 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.8 17.8 1.0 70.5 68.7 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 18.4 19.5 19.7 1.5 82.8 79.1 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 17.7 18.3 17.5 1.6 84.5 80.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.2 18.4 0.4 56.8 57.8 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.1 15.3 1.1 72.8 71.1 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.5 17.1 18.9 0.6 61.2 61.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.7 13.3 1.0 75.6 71.5 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.9 16.6 18.8 0.8 63.0 63.4 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.3 18.5 0.4 59.1 58.2 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.7 16.9 19.2 1.2 71.1 69.6 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.5 17.6 1.1 72.1 71.0 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 17.0 17.0 18.4 0.9 66.4 64.7 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 15.9 16.7 16.3 1.9 86.1 84.4 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 17.0 17.4 18.6 0.8 63.1 63.0 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.5 18.8 1.6 81.1 78.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.7 14.7 1.0 72.3 70.5 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.8 18.9 0.3 55.9 55.8 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------