***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 47.6 52.5 48.0 123.0 69.5 60.5 31.7 44.1 50.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 52.3 66.4 42.3 117.4 68.3 59.9 19.2 48.8 65.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.3 60.1 47.6 120.2 68.5 61.1 26.1 32.1 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 45.2 52.0 42.1 111.4 66.0 57.9 26.5 37.7 52.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.7 37.3 42.2 122.6 70.9 62.2 16.4 24.3 36.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 39.1 48.4 52.5 127.8 70.6 61.1 26.9 35.9 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 43.4 49.6 42.9 120.3 67.4 59.8 25.7 39.1 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 54.3 73.0 45.2 111.7 65.3 58.5 32.9 45.3 73.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 42.7 62.0 45.2 119.6 70.3 61.8 28.6 33.5 45.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 61.7 65.7 50.0 115.8 68.4 61.1 31.9 42.5 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 47.3 48.5 39.2 120.2 71.3 62.1 23.5 30.6 45.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 34.2 45.6 35.7 115.4 69.3 59.3 20.0 29.3 43.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 31.9 43.0 38.4 120.9 70.5 59.6 21.5 25.8 35.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 70.7 75.9 58.5 115.3 70.8 60.6 34.2 56.6 69.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 34.4 38.8 36.8 112.6 65.7 56.5 13.8 28.3 38.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 33.9 47.0 37.3 116.1 68.5 59.2 14.6 28.6 43.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 46.1 50.6 41.8 120.8 68.4 61.1 36.7 42.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 54.5 52.6 57.3 113.7 67.6 60.1 40.5 45.5 50.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 44.7 56.4 43.3 115.0 67.3 59.6 25.2 38.6 55.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 50.3 62.3 55.1 111.2 64.3 57.3 33.0 45.3 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 62.7 58.3 45.6 120.5 70.6 61.1 27.8 40.3 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 44.9 53.4 43.8 119.6 68.8 61.8 31.8 41.3 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 45.1 49.2 45.2 112.0 65.7 59.2 22.0 38.2 50.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 65.6 68.4 54.2 115.9 69.6 60.8 37.5 53.4 66.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 44.6 45.4 50.2 123.0 68.5 60.5 22.8 41.2 44.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 32.1 34.4 30.2 109.2 63.6 54.6 21.8 27.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 49.5 51.5 51.1 122.1 68.0 59.9 31.2 46.8 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.9 35.8 40.3 114.0 66.7 59.0 13.5 21.0 35.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 67.4 74.3 59.5 113.6 67.1 59.2 46.5 62.1 70.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 33.6 41.3 43.8 116.2 66.6 59.1 18.0 29.4 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------