***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 6.5 9.6 111.6 69.5 56.0 0.1 2.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.3 8.4 98.6 67.1 56.3 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 12.8 9.3 108.5 70.0 57.6 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.5 17.3 7.6 93.8 69.8 49.6 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 0.7 6.1 6.5 91.8 69.6 49.9 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.8 11.7 12.3 138.1 76.5 55.7 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.9 8.4 102.2 67.3 56.9 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 18.5 9.2 106.6 66.5 51.8 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 1.3 8.3 6.5 87.7 65.9 50.4 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 10.1 8.9 95.8 65.1 51.9 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.6 7.8 6.9 107.4 69.9 52.4 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.7 8.0 7.1 110.9 68.9 50.9 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.3 9.1 8.3 122.8 72.9 52.9 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.8 17.2 10.9 94.0 65.5 52.6 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.6 12.1 7.4 106.2 75.6 54.9 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.4 7.7 114.9 73.0 52.7 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.4 7.9 95.5 65.2 55.3 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.4 11.1 97.2 61.9 50.7 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.7 8.7 100.1 67.7 55.9 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 15.2 12.0 104.8 63.9 49.3 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.3 9.2 7.6 99.6 69.5 54.6 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.6 8.4 91.5 63.6 53.4 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.7 13.7 9.1 102.7 68.1 55.5 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.2 10.0 97.6 63.1 52.4 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.9 8.4 9.1 104.6 71.8 55.6 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 9.1 7.1 123.9 71.5 53.2 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.9 9.9 108.3 70.9 56.1 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.1 9.9 7.5 100.7 72.2 52.1 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 18.6 12.4 104.6 62.5 51.5 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.8 9.7 8.8 102.6 68.7 57.3 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------