***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 10.6 7.6 99.6 69.9 54.7 0.3 2.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.2 14.0 9.0 128.0 73.9 55.7 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.4 10.5 8.6 106.7 70.5 54.1 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.6 7.0 5.8 85.2 70.1 48.9 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.7 3.9 6.1 100.6 72.3 55.7 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.7 7.5 9.3 114.5 72.4 49.4 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.0 9.7 9.1 125.6 73.1 57.1 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.0 14.2 6.5 86.8 67.9 52.7 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.8 8.1 6.9 99.6 70.4 52.3 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 15.3 7.5 94.6 68.7 54.5 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 3.2 6.0 5.2 98.3 71.3 54.0 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.4 4.6 4.9 84.4 68.2 51.1 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.3 4.3 6.3 97.9 69.8 52.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 17.0 11.4 116.7 71.3 56.1 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.0 8.2 6.3 119.1 78.1 55.0 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.8 2.2 5.4 89.9 69.2 51.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.8 10.0 8.6 120.0 72.7 55.8 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.0 11.6 10.0 99.5 68.0 54.1 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.6 9.3 9.1 125.9 74.2 55.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.0 9.3 95.3 64.3 51.6 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.6 7.0 96.2 71.0 53.3 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.0 9.1 9.4 125.5 73.4 58.4 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.7 12.3 9.1 120.0 74.7 56.3 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.7 15.3 10.1 107.1 70.3 54.4 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.1 9.0 7.0 89.8 71.5 53.5 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 0.8 8.5 6.5 119.5 74.4 50.3 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.8 10.7 8.0 97.1 71.4 54.6 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.2 5.0 5.7 93.6 73.2 51.6 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.2 11.1 103.6 67.3 53.5 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.3 12.5 9.0 122.5 71.9 55.7 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------