***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.7 11.6 116.5 72.2 52.6 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.6 15.0 11.8 121.4 73.9 57.5 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.2 24.3 12.8 123.7 74.3 58.9 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 25.3 9.3 101.2 70.1 48.5 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 16.7 10.4 127.2 73.8 56.5 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.7 10.1 100.6 64.6 50.8 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.5 15.4 11.9 126.4 74.1 56.1 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 20.4 8.7 99.1 66.8 51.4 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.5 20.2 11.0 114.4 71.5 52.1 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 23.4 10.9 115.2 71.8 56.1 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.6 22.2 9.6 113.7 71.2 57.2 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 16.7 7.0 96.1 67.8 50.5 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.6 7.2 99.8 67.2 53.4 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 17.4 13.1 99.8 67.6 53.5 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 22.3 8.9 109.0 74.6 52.5 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.9 15.6 7.9 103.1 68.9 53.7 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.5 22.4 12.5 139.9 78.6 57.9 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.1 11.3 96.1 63.7 51.8 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 19.2 11.5 112.2 71.4 56.7 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 16.7 10.3 91.4 60.3 52.0 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.6 16.1 10.7 109.4 69.1 51.7 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.0 19.5 12.7 133.7 75.4 57.3 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.1 15.7 11.2 101.8 69.9 55.6 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.4 24.9 12.3 102.9 68.1 53.0 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 18.7 12.7 122.8 72.8 54.3 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.6 17.5 7.6 100.6 66.0 52.8 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.6 19.5 12.9 118.9 72.0 53.4 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 15.4 8.3 101.7 71.5 50.2 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.5 24.1 12.4 94.9 61.5 52.3 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.2 11.9 117.8 70.9 57.5 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------