***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 19.6 22.7 19.2 149.3 74.6 71.7 0.7 5.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 24.8 20.9 13.1 121.8 71.2 66.8 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 16.4 19.1 16.9 133.2 74.6 69.6 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 10.8 14.4 19.4 142.2 76.3 70.7 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 13.5 16.0 19.2 147.6 77.5 72.5 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 10.2 11.2 20.7 148.0 73.1 68.2 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.2 21.8 13.6 125.3 71.5 66.9 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.3 20.8 20.8 135.5 73.9 68.7 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 17.3 18.8 20.7 150.5 77.2 73.0 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 18.3 20.5 22.7 137.4 75.1 70.3 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.8 23.2 17.5 142.7 77.0 70.5 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 15.1 20.6 16.6 146.9 77.8 71.3 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.9 15.0 16.5 145.8 75.6 70.3 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 30.1 36.1 23.1 143.0 77.0 72.6 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 2.9 7.9 14.3 116.0 70.9 64.8 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 10.2 13.6 16.3 138.6 73.8 68.9 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 20.4 21.9 12.8 125.3 72.0 67.2 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 26.9 29.8 25.0 144.7 75.3 71.4 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 20.5 23.4 14.0 122.1 72.2 67.6 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.8 23.5 136.7 73.1 68.7 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 20.9 27.5 20.3 154.5 77.9 73.2 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.3 18.4 13.4 127.5 73.4 68.2 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 20.1 22.9 15.8 122.6 72.9 67.9 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 18.4 20.9 21.7 144.3 76.3 71.6 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 12.7 14.8 21.4 153.5 75.6 71.9 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 6.4 10.4 9.0 100.0 67.5 61.7 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 19.7 25.3 20.3 149.2 74.3 70.5 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 10.7 12.4 18.8 137.9 74.5 69.0 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 33.8 37.1 23.7 140.5 73.5 69.6 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.4 13.8 14.0 121.1 71.0 67.1 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------