***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.0 29.5 0.0 52.9 52.9 28.4 29.5 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 29.5 -0.1 49.7 49.9 28.0 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.3 29.9 0.1 52.8 53.3 28.2 29.1 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 23.9 24.3 28.1 1.0 72.1 67.4 21.3 22.6 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.5 28.4 0.4 58.7 57.1 28.7 29.7 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.3 26.0 0.6 61.6 61.0 27.0 28.6 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.2 28.9 29.2 -0.2 47.2 47.7 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.1 26.6 0.3 55.1 55.4 16.6 17.7 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.9 28.9 0.5 60.9 58.8 28.3 28.8 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.6 27.4 0.6 61.0 59.7 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.0 28.5 0.2 56.3 54.0 28.2 29.2 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.8 28.1 0.2 54.6 53.7 27.4 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.4 30.1 27.9 0.2 53.4 53.4 28.1 30.0 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.6 27.5 -0.3 47.1 47.2 27.4 28.7 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 31.2 30.8 29.8 0.7 65.0 62.9 29.2 30.0 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.0 30.9 28.3 0.4 58.3 57.2 28.7 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.6 29.2 0.0 52.3 51.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.0 26.2 0.3 58.2 55.9 26.9 27.9 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.7 29.7 0.0 49.9 50.7 27.8 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.3 23.9 0.2 54.3 53.9 22.8 24.1 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.5 29.3 0.2 56.1 54.4 28.3 29.1 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.1 29.2 0.1 53.8 52.3 28.1 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.6 29.7 -0.1 48.5 49.9 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.7 27.9 0.0 52.6 51.6 27.7 28.5 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.7 28.2 0.2 55.6 54.5 28.4 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.1 29.7 27.9 0.4 52.3 54.9 27.8 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.3 28.6 0.0 53.5 52.6 27.8 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 31.2 31.3 28.9 1.0 70.4 66.5 28.9 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.8 25.2 0.2 56.7 54.6 21.8 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.0 29.5 -0.1 49.5 50.2 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------