***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.7 29.1 29.3 0.1 52.8 52.5 28.2 28.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.6 29.1 -0.1 50.2 50.4 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 27.2 29.2 29.7 0.2 53.7 52.8 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.2 23.4 28.4 1.3 67.3 64.2 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.7 28.4 0.7 57.0 57.8 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 30.2 29.3 26.0 0.9 60.3 60.7 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.6 28.1 28.9 -0.2 48.4 48.8 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.1 26.7 0.5 56.1 56.2 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.6 28.5 0.7 57.9 57.7 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.5 27.3 0.7 59.1 57.7 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.2 28.2 0.5 56.0 56.5 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.0 28.3 0.5 55.6 56.0 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.4 30.5 27.5 0.6 56.2 57.5 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 26.8 28.0 27.0 -0.3 46.2 48.6 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.4 31.1 29.5 1.3 66.3 63.8 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.0 31.8 28.2 0.9 60.2 60.0 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 26.5 28.2 28.8 0.0 52.9 51.0 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 26.2 0.4 55.3 55.2 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.4 28.3 29.4 0.0 50.6 50.9 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.0 23.8 0.4 54.3 55.7 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.5 29.0 0.4 56.0 54.9 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 26.7 28.8 28.8 0.1 54.7 51.7 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.8 28.0 29.3 -0.1 48.3 50.2 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 26.8 28.4 27.5 0.1 51.0 52.0 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.9 27.9 0.5 57.4 56.7 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.1 28.2 0.7 56.3 58.4 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.2 29.2 28.4 0.2 53.9 53.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.5 31.3 28.9 1.4 67.6 64.8 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.4 25.0 0.2 53.4 53.9 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.6 29.2 0.0 50.3 50.5 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------