***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.7 30.5 0.8 62.8 57.6 28.6 29.7 31.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.3 30.2 0.5 58.9 54.1 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.5 31.0 1.0 63.6 58.7 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.9 29.9 2.2 78.9 71.3 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 31.9 31.9 29.8 1.6 71.7 65.0 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.8 27.5 2.0 76.8 69.6 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.6 29.9 0.4 55.2 52.6 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 19.5 19.3 28.3 1.5 69.8 63.8 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.9 29.9 1.6 71.7 64.7 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.4 31.2 28.8 1.7 72.7 65.4 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 31.5 31.1 29.7 1.5 70.0 64.2 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 30.6 30.1 29.8 1.4 69.0 63.6 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 32.1 31.5 28.9 1.6 71.7 65.2 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.3 30.3 28.2 0.4 59.3 53.7 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.5 32.2 30.9 2.1 78.1 70.9 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 33.0 33.1 29.6 1.8 74.0 67.8 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.7 29.8 0.5 58.8 53.9 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.6 27.7 1.4 70.3 62.9 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 29.3 30.3 30.5 0.6 60.0 54.9 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.7 25.3 1.2 67.8 62.3 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.6 30.4 1.2 67.2 61.3 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 30.0 30.0 29.8 0.5 59.7 54.8 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.2 30.5 0.6 58.9 54.4 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.9 28.9 1.0 65.4 58.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.9 29.1 1.2 69.4 62.0 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.6 31.7 29.7 1.7 73.3 66.7 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.0 29.5 0.9 64.0 58.4 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.5 32.3 30.4 2.3 80.1 72.4 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.3 25.0 26.5 1.2 67.7 61.5 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.8 30.4 30.3 0.6 58.5 54.7 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------