***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.3 30.0 0.2 53.5 54.3 27.9 29.2 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.4 30.0 0.2 52.5 53.6 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.2 30.5 0.4 56.7 56.1 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.3 23.1 28.5 1.2 67.8 64.3 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.6 29.0 0.6 58.0 57.4 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.7 29.3 26.6 0.7 59.6 58.8 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 29.2 29.0 29.7 0.0 50.6 51.6 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.6 27.2 0.5 56.9 56.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.3 29.6 0.7 59.8 59.3 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.9 28.0 0.9 61.7 60.5 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.6 29.2 0.4 54.3 55.0 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.9 28.6 0.4 54.3 55.0 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.1 28.7 0.3 51.9 53.7 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 28.8 28.6 28.3 0.2 52.1 53.2 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.4 30.3 0.6 59.2 58.5 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.1 28.9 0.5 56.3 56.4 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.0 29.8 0.3 54.1 54.9 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.1 28.0 26.9 0.7 60.7 58.9 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.0 30.2 0.3 53.5 54.5 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.2 24.6 0.5 56.9 56.4 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.5 30.0 0.4 56.6 56.1 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.6 29.7 0.4 55.2 56.0 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.7 30.3 0.3 53.7 54.2 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.5 28.7 0.4 56.5 56.1 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.8 28.7 0.2 55.1 54.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.2 28.5 0.5 54.4 56.3 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.1 29.1 0.1 53.6 53.8 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.1 30.8 29.3 1.0 64.6 62.2 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.1 23.2 26.0 0.6 59.6 58.3 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.3 30.1 0.2 53.3 53.6 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------