***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 31.0 29.9 28.3 -1.0 41.9 40.3 28.5 30.7 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.3 28.6 -1.1 38.8 39.6 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.8 28.5 -1.1 39.6 39.7 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 23.7 22.9 25.7 -0.6 46.5 44.6 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.8 29.5 26.5 -1.2 38.2 38.2 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 29.5 28.2 24.1 -1.1 39.3 37.5 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.1 28.3 -1.1 37.2 38.4 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.6 24.4 -1.2 36.9 37.7 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 30.6 29.4 27.6 -1.0 42.8 41.2 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 30.0 29.3 25.4 -0.9 42.0 41.6 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.2 28.7 26.8 -1.5 34.2 35.4 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.6 25.8 -1.4 35.9 36.3 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.1 26.5 -1.6 32.8 33.0 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 30.0 28.5 26.6 -1.3 35.8 36.7 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 31.4 29.9 28.6 -1.0 39.6 38.4 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.1 29.6 26.4 -1.5 34.1 34.3 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.6 28.3 -0.9 41.4 42.3 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 29.5 27.5 24.1 -1.3 37.9 37.7 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.7 28.7 28.6 -1.1 40.8 40.6 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 25.2 23.7 22.1 -1.4 34.1 34.5 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.7 29.3 28.0 -1.2 38.4 38.3 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.8 28.2 -0.8 42.3 43.0 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 29.9 28.6 28.6 -1.1 42.0 41.0 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 30.2 27.6 26.6 -1.4 35.2 36.7 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.4 28.7 26.9 -1.4 34.0 35.4 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.2 28.1 25.5 -1.5 33.0 34.2 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.9 28.6 27.5 -1.2 37.4 37.3 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 31.0 30.3 26.9 -0.8 43.8 41.8 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.3 23.4 -1.3 37.5 37.2 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.4 29.2 28.5 -1.1 38.7 39.4 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------