***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.3 19.0 0.4 64.8 60.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.4 18.7 0.3 62.3 58.2 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.6 19.3 0.4 64.6 60.1 17.5 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.5 16.8 0.7 75.2 69.4 12.8 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.6 14.7 17.0 0.5 69.9 64.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.0 14.8 0.6 76.6 69.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.3 18.7 0.2 60.1 56.0 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.5 14.5 0.3 59.9 57.7 8.4 9.1 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 15.9 16.1 17.1 0.6 71.2 66.1 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.6 15.4 0.5 66.7 63.1 15.0 15.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.2 16.6 0.3 60.7 58.7 14.4 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.2 15.5 0.3 59.7 57.2 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.6 15.2 0.5 67.2 63.8 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 16.6 0.3 61.6 58.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.3 18.5 0.6 72.3 66.9 16.0 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.3 16.1 0.6 69.4 65.8 15.3 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.7 18.5 0.4 62.0 59.8 15.9 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.2 14.4 0.4 64.7 61.8 13.2 13.8 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 18.8 0.3 60.7 57.9 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.1 12.3 0.3 62.9 60.6 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.7 18.3 0.4 67.9 62.2 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.5 18.5 0.4 61.8 59.4 14.9 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.2 18.7 0.2 57.5 55.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.1 16.6 0.4 64.8 61.0 15.5 15.9 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.9 17.8 0.4 66.7 62.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.0 14.8 0.6 74.8 68.0 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.6 18.3 0.4 67.9 62.9 15.5 15.9 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.8 76.6 70.8 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.5 13.7 0.3 60.3 59.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.5 19.0 0.3 61.4 57.5 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------