***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.3 18.2 0.1 51.9 51.7 14.9 15.2 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 17.8 0.0 51.1 49.9 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 16.3 17.5 18.5 0.2 52.7 52.7 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.4 16.3 0.8 66.5 62.4 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.6 16.1 0.5 57.9 56.9 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.5 14.5 0.7 65.1 62.6 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.0 17.9 -0.1 48.8 49.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.7 14.0 0.2 53.7 54.5 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.3 16.1 0.5 57.1 56.7 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.1 14.6 0.4 55.9 56.2 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.3 15.7 0.4 54.8 55.9 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.8 14.8 0.3 53.5 54.7 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.6 14.0 14.1 0.5 60.3 58.2 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.2 15.6 0.0 46.3 49.9 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.5 17.7 0.7 66.4 62.3 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.4 15.2 0.7 63.2 61.0 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.5 17.6 0.0 50.6 50.5 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 13.5 0.3 54.5 55.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.2 17.9 0.0 51.3 50.2 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.1 11.3 0.3 53.5 55.5 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.5 17.4 0.3 54.8 54.1 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.4 17.5 0.0 51.6 50.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.4 17.9 0.0 49.6 50.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.0 15.6 0.2 52.8 53.9 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.7 16.9 0.3 56.4 55.3 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.3 14.1 0.7 62.4 60.4 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.4 17.5 0.2 53.2 53.6 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.1 16.7 0.9 68.7 64.0 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.7 12.9 0.2 52.0 54.0 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.5 18.1 0.0 49.9 50.3 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------