***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.6 19.5 0.5 55.4 58.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.2 19.2 0.4 56.8 56.3 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 18.3 18.3 19.6 0.4 55.1 57.0 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.3 17.1 0.5 57.7 58.8 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.2 17.9 0.6 60.1 60.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.4 15.1 0.7 66.8 65.9 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 16.8 17.0 19.2 0.3 55.1 55.3 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.7 15.0 0.4 55.3 56.8 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.4 18.2 0.7 59.0 61.2 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.3 16.1 0.6 59.3 60.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.5 15.6 17.6 0.5 56.2 58.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 13.6 13.5 16.2 0.4 54.0 55.7 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.5 16.7 0.7 64.7 65.0 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.4 16.6 17.6 0.7 59.2 61.3 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 17.1 17.0 19.4 0.6 58.4 60.1 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.9 17.1 0.6 60.3 61.6 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 16.9 17.2 19.0 0.4 57.3 57.1 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 14.3 14.3 15.3 0.5 55.8 58.9 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.4 19.3 0.4 56.0 56.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.5 10.8 13.3 0.5 55.5 58.4 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.9 16.1 19.0 0.5 55.8 58.9 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.3 19.3 0.5 58.7 58.8 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.8 19.3 0.4 53.8 56.0 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 16.2 16.4 17.6 0.6 57.1 59.9 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.3 18.6 0.4 55.3 57.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.7 15.5 15.4 0.7 65.0 64.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.7 19.0 0.6 57.4 59.3 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.1 17.9 0.7 61.8 62.2 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 13.8 14.0 14.5 0.5 56.4 59.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.8 19.5 0.4 56.5 56.1 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------