***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.5 58.2 34.4 32.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 27.4 22.2 22.9 64.0 35.6 35.2 19.2 48.8 65.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 20.1 26.8 20.1 60.3 35.6 33.0 26.1 32.1 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 19.5 25.6 19.9 59.9 31.0 30.0 26.5 37.7 52.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 13.0 17.1 19.5 59.3 36.1 31.2 16.4 24.3 36.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 21.3 28.1 26.8 63.2 36.1 32.4 26.9 35.9 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 22.5 26.7 22.8 62.9 35.7 34.1 25.7 39.1 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 33.2 33.3 22.2 62.2 34.5 31.7 32.9 45.3 73.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 19.7 27.6 19.5 56.8 31.5 30.2 28.6 33.5 45.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 23.3 28.4 22.9 59.4 30.7 29.6 31.9 42.5 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 22.0 28.1 17.7 60.5 38.1 32.1 23.5 30.6 45.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 17.2 23.0 16.6 59.5 37.6 32.4 20.0 29.3 43.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 13.9 21.8 19.4 57.8 33.7 31.3 21.5 25.8 35.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 31.6 35.3 27.6 64.3 35.7 33.4 34.2 56.6 69.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 12.8 15.9 18.3 61.3 36.9 30.9 13.8 28.3 38.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 15.8 17.0 18.9 59.8 36.2 31.8 14.6 28.6 43.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 28.4 38.2 23.7 66.0 39.4 35.6 36.7 42.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 28.7 37.5 28.0 61.2 29.2 29.4 40.5 45.5 50.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 21.9 28.9 22.9 64.2 37.2 35.7 25.2 38.6 55.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 28.3 33.3 31.7 66.6 34.1 32.1 33.0 45.3 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 26.1 26.2 18.3 57.0 32.0 30.7 27.8 40.3 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 25.6 37.0 24.5 66.3 40.4 37.0 31.8 41.3 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 23.8 30.1 23.3 64.1 38.8 35.2 22.0 38.2 50.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 30.7 35.0 24.8 60.6 28.3 30.2 37.5 53.4 66.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 24.0 22.6 21.9 59.7 32.2 30.1 22.8 41.2 44.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 15.2 23.3 16.5 60.2 38.6 33.7 21.8 27.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 26.2 31.6 22.8 60.6 33.2 31.7 31.2 46.8 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 13.9 13.8 19.3 61.0 34.8 30.9 13.5 21.0 35.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 40.8 46.4 29.9 63.8 31.2 30.6 46.5 62.1 70.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 18.5 18.8 21.9 62.2 35.9 34.6 18.0 29.4 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------