***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 67.0 68.9 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 12.5 5.9 92.0 74.0 52.9 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.7 13.8 4.8 77.2 72.7 52.6 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.4 18.7 4.0 72.7 72.4 52.6 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 3.2 6.4 4.3 74.5 71.1 52.2 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.1 10.1 6.4 83.8 71.2 52.4 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.4 12.8 5.7 84.0 71.1 52.5 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 18.5 5.7 80.5 68.8 52.6 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.8 9.3 4.3 69.9 67.6 49.9 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 10.8 5.6 78.3 67.1 51.0 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.3 11.2 4.5 83.3 75.0 54.0 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 3.6 8.8 4.1 76.8 72.3 53.3 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.9 9.1 5.0 85.3 73.0 52.3 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.4 21.3 7.1 87.8 72.1 50.9 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.8 8.1 3.3 69.1 71.4 56.0 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.7 7.5 4.9 89.9 75.8 53.4 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 16.8 5.3 80.9 70.1 50.8 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.1 8.9 6.8 77.0 63.7 47.3 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 14.5 6.0 95.9 76.8 53.7 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 14.9 8.5 86.0 63.8 48.7 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.3 9.3 3.8 66.9 69.7 52.8 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 19.2 6.0 99.2 75.7 52.8 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.5 17.5 6.2 95.7 76.4 54.0 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.6 12.1 5.9 76.0 68.7 49.5 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.9 8.0 4.7 70.6 70.3 51.7 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.7 9.1 4.0 83.0 71.4 51.4 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.8 5.4 76.7 70.8 52.5 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.4 11.3 4.0 77.5 73.5 54.0 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 19.3 7.6 82.5 65.1 47.6 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.9 10.4 5.7 89.0 74.3 53.0 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------