***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 76.4 62.5 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.1 4.2 5.3 78.9 61.7 44.2 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.3 5.7 3.9 62.5 57.3 41.8 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 0.5 6.6 4.7 87.7 68.7 43.5 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 0.4 2.2 4.5 81.3 62.9 41.9 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 0.5 4.2 6.0 65.3 64.5 38.3 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.8 5.6 5.7 83.9 61.7 44.8 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.6 5.4 71.8 58.4 41.7 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 0.9 5.5 4.7 76.8 59.8 41.1 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.3 12.2 5.4 70.3 57.5 41.5 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 0.7 4.4 3.9 75.4 62.6 41.9 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.3 2.6 3.8 69.8 62.2 41.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 0.3 2.8 4.3 63.6 62.9 36.9 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.9 5.9 69.0 58.4 41.6 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.7 5.5 4.5 89.3 71.8 43.5 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.2 1.4 4.0 68.5 65.4 39.9 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.7 4.9 5.8 83.3 64.3 45.1 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.9 7.5 6.6 64.2 56.7 38.8 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.7 5.0 75.3 61.7 43.8 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.2 8.3 69.2 55.4 39.7 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.5 9.1 4.0 75.6 62.1 42.2 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 0.7 7.6 6.1 82.1 67.1 45.1 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 4.8 72.0 60.1 44.2 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.9 5.2 62.0 56.9 39.1 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 1.6 7.9 5.3 86.4 64.2 40.4 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.8 3.5 3.5 62.2 64.0 41.6 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 1.3 6.7 5.6 81.7 61.6 40.7 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 0.9 4.7 4.4 81.6 70.8 43.0 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.9 7.5 69.0 57.0 39.8 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.1 5.7 4.9 74.3 59.2 42.6 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------