***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.8 70.4 62.2 46.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 11.3 5.2 58.7 55.7 41.8 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.4 4.2 60.3 56.1 42.6 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.7 3.6 50.8 57.8 37.8 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.6 12.8 3.7 54.6 57.8 40.2 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.2 10.1 4.7 45.4 51.2 35.4 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.7 5.7 62.5 56.6 41.6 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.2 4.2 60.3 58.0 43.0 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.8 12.3 4.0 56.4 54.3 38.6 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 14.7 4.4 55.9 54.1 40.1 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.1 17.1 3.2 56.1 56.3 41.3 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.5 15.0 3.0 58.8 61.2 43.6 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.9 3.4 48.1 53.5 37.0 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.6 10.9 4.9 48.4 47.6 37.3 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.5 3.8 53.2 60.1 40.4 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.3 10.3 3.5 52.4 55.9 38.2 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.1 6.6 66.3 56.4 38.9 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.4 5.3 52.7 51.3 37.7 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.6 4.7 55.4 53.4 41.8 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.2 12.8 6.0 55.8 50.5 37.5 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.4 3.9 61.2 55.1 40.1 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.1 8.8 6.1 58.6 54.1 39.1 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.2 4.1 50.7 49.9 39.8 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.7 13.1 4.8 53.0 49.8 37.7 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.2 5.2 62.3 57.4 42.1 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.0 11.7 2.7 46.8 59.5 39.7 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.2 5.8 68.1 60.1 44.4 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.7 3.5 50.6 59.1 39.6 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 16.3 5.4 51.4 47.4 36.3 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.2 4.9 59.7 55.6 42.7 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------