***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.8 40.9 40.6 28.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 3.9 7.0 6.5 46.9 42.7 27.8 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 1.7 3.5 7.2 51.7 45.8 30.5 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 1.1 2.3 7.5 49.6 40.4 29.4 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 1.4 4.9 7.0 47.2 44.8 30.7 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.3 4.3 9.8 63.7 50.7 34.1 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.5 2.0 5.7 42.0 40.6 27.6 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 1.9 3.5 7.0 49.7 45.5 32.8 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.2 6.5 43.7 43.4 30.6 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.5 8.0 7.5 47.7 44.5 31.4 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.3 3.4 6.2 47.3 45.3 32.1 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.0 3.1 5.6 47.5 45.7 33.3 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.9 6.7 48.4 41.8 31.8 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 1.1 3.7 9.7 60.1 45.2 32.0 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 0.1 0.5 6.8 52.1 47.5 29.1 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 1.1 3.5 6.6 48.0 43.2 31.9 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.7 4.9 6.0 48.5 42.0 28.9 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 2.4 7.9 9.3 56.0 45.3 32.1 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.0 4.4 7.2 50.1 44.8 28.3 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 4.1 9.3 9.0 59.5 44.2 33.2 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 0.9 1.0 6.6 44.8 42.2 29.8 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 1.0 4.1 6.4 48.5 42.1 29.1 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 1.0 4.4 8.3 54.4 48.9 29.6 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 2.3 7.7 8.9 56.8 44.2 31.2 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 0.9 0.9 6.6 42.9 37.8 27.4 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.5 2.8 6.3 56.5 47.4 33.9 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 0.7 0.7 6.0 39.7 38.3 27.1 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 1.3 4.8 7.4 52.3 46.1 30.2 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 4.5 10.0 9.5 57.8 43.3 32.0 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 1.2 3.5 6.4 45.5 44.0 27.8 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------