***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 31.6 2.7 96.3 88.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 30.4 31.6 31.5 2.6 92.7 86.4 28.0 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 30.6 32.7 31.8 2.9 96.4 88.9 28.2 29.1 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 24.3 25.0 29.7 2.2 89.8 82.8 21.3 22.6 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 31.7 32.8 29.9 2.4 91.3 85.2 28.7 29.7 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 30.4 30.9 27.1 2.0 86.9 82.6 27.0 28.6 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 30.2 31.4 31.2 2.4 92.3 85.2 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 19.5 20.0 27.8 2.3 90.8 85.1 16.6 17.7 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 31.1 32.1 30.4 2.7 94.4 87.9 28.3 28.8 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 31.2 32.0 28.7 2.6 93.8 87.1 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 31.2 32.4 29.4 2.4 91.4 86.0 28.2 29.2 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 30.7 31.4 29.1 2.3 90.8 85.7 27.4 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 31.8 32.3 28.7 2.3 88.7 85.2 28.1 30.0 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 30.6 32.0 29.6 2.7 94.3 87.5 27.4 28.7 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 31.7 32.8 30.7 2.3 90.2 83.9 29.2 30.0 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 32.5 33.4 29.2 2.3 89.3 84.9 28.7 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 29.8 31.2 30.9 2.5 92.3 85.8 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.7 27.7 2.5 93.1 85.9 26.9 27.9 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 30.1 31.9 31.7 2.8 93.9 87.9 27.8 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 26.0 26.6 25.3 2.1 88.3 82.4 22.8 24.1 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 31.0 32.2 31.2 2.7 94.0 87.6 28.3 29.1 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 30.3 31.9 31.1 2.7 92.5 87.8 28.1 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 30.2 31.9 31.6 3.0 95.4 89.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 30.5 31.4 29.6 2.7 95.4 87.9 27.7 28.5 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 30.9 32.3 30.2 2.5 93.1 86.1 28.4 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 31.2 31.8 28.4 1.9 84.7 81.0 27.8 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 30.4 32.4 30.7 2.6 94.8 86.7 27.8 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 31.6 32.7 30.1 2.1 87.8 82.0 28.9 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 25.4 26.1 26.6 2.3 92.5 84.9 21.8 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 30.6 32.0 31.7 2.7 94.1 87.0 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------