***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 30.3 1.5 75.9 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.4 30.0 1.3 69.8 62.3 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.4 30.4 1.6 75.5 66.4 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.4 28.7 1.0 66.5 62.0 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.3 31.2 28.6 1.2 68.1 63.7 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.6 26.3 1.2 71.6 64.5 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.8 29.8 1.2 70.7 61.9 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 19.2 20.0 26.7 1.2 69.5 64.1 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.6 30.1 28.9 1.5 70.1 66.2 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.2 27.5 1.4 70.2 65.4 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 30.9 31.0 28.2 1.3 69.6 65.5 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.6 28.0 1.3 70.1 65.4 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 31.4 31.7 27.6 1.3 70.2 65.0 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.2 28.2 1.4 72.2 64.9 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.2 31.3 29.4 1.2 70.2 64.0 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 32.0 32.0 28.0 1.2 69.0 64.5 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.3 29.4 29.4 1.1 70.1 61.3 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 29.0 26.4 1.3 69.6 64.4 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.9 30.2 1.4 71.2 63.7 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.3 25.7 24.1 1.0 65.8 61.0 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.6 29.8 1.5 72.8 66.1 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 29.8 29.7 29.5 1.2 70.2 62.1 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.1 30.0 1.6 73.8 65.6 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.9 29.5 28.3 1.5 72.8 66.0 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.6 28.9 1.4 71.5 64.9 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.3 30.9 27.4 0.9 68.1 61.2 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 29.8 30.2 29.4 1.4 74.2 64.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.5 31.3 29.0 1.0 66.4 62.4 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.8 25.3 25.3 1.2 68.5 63.3 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 30.0 30.3 30.3 1.3 71.1 63.6 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------