***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 31.3 2.3 81.3 73.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 31.2 31.9 31.1 2.2 78.8 71.7 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 31.6 32.4 31.5 2.5 81.4 74.8 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.8 29.6 1.9 78.3 71.0 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 32.2 33.0 29.6 2.1 78.4 72.3 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 30.5 30.7 27.1 1.9 75.0 71.2 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.4 30.8 2.0 78.3 70.1 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 19.7 20.3 27.8 2.2 77.7 73.1 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.5 30.0 2.3 80.5 74.2 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.5 28.5 2.3 79.4 73.9 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 31.9 32.5 29.2 2.2 77.7 73.5 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 30.9 31.6 29.1 2.2 78.0 73.7 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 32.3 32.6 28.6 2.1 75.5 72.7 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.7 29.3 2.3 79.2 72.6 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.6 32.5 30.3 2.0 80.0 72.9 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 33.1 33.8 29.0 2.1 76.3 72.4 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.9 30.4 1.9 77.5 69.7 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.8 30.1 27.5 2.3 77.3 72.8 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 30.7 31.5 31.3 2.4 80.2 73.2 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 26.5 26.5 25.2 2.0 75.8 70.7 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 31.2 32.1 30.9 2.4 80.6 73.9 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 31.0 31.6 30.5 2.1 78.3 70.8 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 31.0 31.7 31.2 2.5 81.0 74.4 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.2 29.4 2.4 80.0 74.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.2 32.3 29.9 2.3 79.8 73.4 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 31.7 31.8 28.4 1.7 73.6 68.6 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.6 30.3 2.2 79.5 72.7 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.5 32.0 29.9 1.9 78.0 70.9 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 25.8 26.3 26.4 2.1 77.0 71.9 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.4 31.3 2.2 79.3 72.5 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------