***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.0 32.1 3.2 88.7 81.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.7 32.0 3.1 88.3 80.8 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 30.8 32.5 32.3 3.3 89.9 82.5 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 23.6 25.2 30.3 2.5 85.6 75.7 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 31.7 32.5 30.4 2.7 84.8 77.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.8 27.9 2.5 84.8 76.9 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.4 31.7 2.9 87.7 79.5 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.7 19.9 28.6 2.8 83.7 78.2 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 30.9 32.0 30.8 3.1 86.3 80.4 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 30.8 31.9 29.4 3.0 85.2 79.4 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.4 29.9 2.8 84.9 78.5 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 30.2 31.7 29.8 2.8 84.7 78.9 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 30.9 33.2 29.3 2.8 85.5 78.6 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 30.0 32.0 30.2 3.2 89.8 82.1 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 31.6 32.7 31.0 2.6 87.0 77.8 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 32.0 33.1 29.7 2.6 83.5 77.3 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.8 31.4 3.0 87.6 80.2 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 29.6 30.5 28.5 3.0 86.2 79.3 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.1 31.7 32.2 3.3 89.1 82.2 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 25.1 26.1 26.1 2.6 82.2 76.1 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 30.6 32.3 31.7 3.1 88.2 80.8 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 30.4 32.1 31.5 3.1 89.2 81.7 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 30.3 31.8 32.1 3.5 90.3 83.6 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 30.4 31.4 30.3 3.3 89.4 81.9 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 31.1 32.4 30.6 2.9 89.0 79.3 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 30.5 32.0 29.1 2.3 81.5 74.8 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.5 31.2 3.0 88.0 79.8 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 31.3 32.2 30.6 2.4 84.0 75.3 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 24.7 25.9 27.4 2.9 84.8 78.5 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 30.4 31.7 32.2 3.2 88.8 81.0 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------