***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 32.8 3.9 94.7 88.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 31.4 33.0 33.0 4.0 93.7 87.9 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 32.0 33.3 33.0 4.1 94.5 87.8 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 25.4 25.9 30.3 3.3 86.7 84.1 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 32.5 33.6 30.9 3.5 87.1 84.8 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 31.1 31.6 27.2 2.4 80.2 78.3 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 31.7 32.9 32.6 3.7 93.4 87.2 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 19.7 20.7 28.2 3.0 84.9 81.1 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 32.2 32.9 31.8 3.8 90.2 87.0 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 31.5 32.6 29.6 3.6 88.7 84.9 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 31.9 32.9 30.1 3.2 84.7 82.8 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 31.2 31.8 29.3 3.0 83.6 81.2 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 32.1 33.1 29.4 3.0 83.4 82.1 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 31.3 32.4 30.9 3.7 92.7 85.2 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 32.9 33.5 32.0 3.2 87.7 84.2 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 33.0 34.0 30.0 3.1 84.6 82.8 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 31.1 32.8 32.6 4.0 94.3 89.0 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 30.6 31.0 28.3 3.3 86.8 82.1 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 31.2 32.8 33.1 4.2 95.1 88.6 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 26.2 27.0 25.9 2.7 83.4 78.8 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 32.1 33.0 32.5 3.8 90.3 85.9 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 31.6 33.1 32.7 4.2 95.2 90.2 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 31.5 33.0 33.0 4.3 96.7 88.8 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 31.1 31.9 30.6 3.6 90.9 84.4 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 32.3 32.9 31.3 3.5 90.0 85.2 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 31.6 32.3 28.8 2.6 80.5 79.2 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 31.6 33.1 31.9 3.6 92.0 86.3 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 32.7 33.3 30.8 3.0 85.0 82.3 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 26.1 27.0 27.3 3.1 86.2 80.8 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 31.7 33.0 33.1 4.0 94.2 87.8 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------