***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 0.0 20.0 1.7 92.5 86.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 16.5 16.9 19.9 1.5 90.9 84.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 19.0 19.6 20.1 1.8 95.0 88.5 17.5 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.4 15.1 17.8 1.2 85.8 79.8 12.8 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 14.8 15.6 17.7 1.3 89.7 83.2 13.8 14.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.8 14.3 15.7 1.0 83.5 78.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.0 19.9 1.5 89.8 83.6 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.1 15.7 1.2 85.8 80.7 8.4 9.1 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.2 16.8 18.2 1.5 92.9 87.1 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.5 16.4 1.3 89.4 83.8 15.0 15.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 15.6 16.3 17.1 1.2 88.6 82.3 14.4 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.8 14.3 16.5 1.2 86.6 82.3 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 15.0 15.6 16.0 1.1 86.4 82.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 16.5 17.2 18.1 1.5 92.6 87.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 17.5 17.9 19.0 1.3 89.2 82.8 16.0 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 16.5 17.1 16.8 1.2 86.7 81.9 15.3 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 16.9 17.5 19.3 1.4 91.3 84.1 15.9 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 14.4 14.8 15.5 1.2 88.3 82.5 13.2 13.8 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 16.5 16.9 20.0 1.7 92.4 87.1 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.2 10.5 13.7 1.0 84.3 78.3 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 15.8 16.4 19.3 1.6 93.5 86.9 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 15.8 16.4 19.4 1.6 92.8 87.7 14.9 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 15.6 16.2 19.8 1.9 93.4 89.6 15.0 15.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 16.3 16.8 17.8 1.5 91.9 86.7 15.5 15.9 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.7 18.5 1.4 92.0 84.1 15.0 15.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 15.0 15.4 15.8 1.0 85.9 80.1 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 16.6 17.1 19.1 1.5 92.1 85.0 15.5 15.9 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 14.9 15.4 18.2 1.1 84.2 78.7 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.0 14.3 14.9 1.2 89.2 82.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.1 20.2 1.6 91.2 85.2 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------