***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 18.7 1.0 70.5 65.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.8 18.6 0.8 67.2 61.9 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.6 18.4 18.7 1.1 70.5 66.8 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.3 16.7 0.7 64.3 61.3 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.7 16.4 0.7 65.4 62.4 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.5 14.6 0.7 67.6 62.5 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.7 18.6 0.7 65.3 60.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.2 14.6 0.6 64.8 61.3 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.8 16.8 0.9 67.9 65.0 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.2 15.1 0.7 66.0 62.9 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 14.6 15.0 16.1 0.9 68.7 65.1 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.2 15.6 0.9 69.0 65.5 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.3 15.0 0.9 71.5 66.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.1 16.6 0.8 70.1 63.9 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.8 17.8 0.9 70.0 66.1 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.6 15.7 0.9 70.1 65.7 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.2 17.9 0.6 63.7 59.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.2 14.3 0.7 64.4 61.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.7 18.6 0.9 69.3 64.3 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 12.6 0.4 61.0 57.2 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.3 17.9 1.0 68.3 64.8 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.7 17.9 0.7 66.4 62.1 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 1.1 70.8 67.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.0 16.5 0.9 70.0 65.3 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.4 17.3 1.0 67.2 65.0 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.3 14.9 0.6 66.1 61.3 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.4 17.9 1.0 68.0 65.3 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.0 17.1 0.7 65.4 62.7 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.5 13.7 0.6 64.5 60.8 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.0 18.8 0.9 67.6 63.4 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------