***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 19.6 1.5 74.9 70.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.4 19.5 1.3 72.7 68.5 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.8 19.3 19.6 1.6 78.5 73.0 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 14.2 15.0 17.3 0.8 69.8 64.7 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.8 15.0 17.2 1.0 72.2 67.8 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 13.8 13.9 15.4 0.9 69.1 67.5 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.7 19.5 1.3 70.2 67.6 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 9.6 10.2 15.6 1.2 74.1 69.1 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.2 17.7 1.4 76.4 72.5 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 15.9 16.3 16.1 1.3 75.6 70.5 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 15.4 15.8 16.8 1.1 72.0 69.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.7 16.4 1.2 73.0 70.2 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.9 15.6 1.1 70.5 70.0 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.4 17.0 17.8 1.5 81.9 73.5 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 17.0 17.4 18.5 1.2 73.5 69.2 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.8 16.4 1.0 70.9 68.5 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.9 18.8 1.1 68.2 65.9 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.3 14.9 15.3 1.3 77.7 70.5 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.5 19.6 1.5 76.2 70.9 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.5 13.7 1.1 74.7 67.9 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 18.8 1.4 75.6 71.7 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 15.5 15.9 18.8 1.3 71.8 68.4 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.0 19.4 1.7 81.6 74.4 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.5 17.5 1.5 81.1 73.3 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.3 18.0 1.3 73.8 69.2 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.0 15.5 0.7 69.7 64.4 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.7 18.7 1.4 73.3 69.8 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.5 17.8 0.9 69.4 65.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 13.7 14.5 14.7 1.3 78.6 70.4 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.7 19.8 1.4 73.8 69.8 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------