***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 20.5 1.9 88.3 78.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.7 18.1 20.4 1.8 85.0 77.3 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.9 20.5 20.5 2.0 90.1 80.0 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.9 18.1 1.1 76.3 68.5 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.1 18.0 1.3 79.7 71.9 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.5 16.0 1.1 76.6 69.8 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.1 17.9 20.4 1.7 84.4 76.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 9.9 10.7 16.2 1.3 81.7 72.3 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.2 18.6 1.7 87.1 77.6 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.4 17.1 16.8 1.4 83.6 73.8 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.4 17.5 1.4 82.4 74.1 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.8 17.1 1.4 83.2 74.9 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.7 16.3 1.3 79.1 73.9 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.1 18.0 18.5 1.6 85.3 77.6 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.5 18.1 19.1 1.4 82.3 72.8 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.4 17.1 1.2 77.1 72.1 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.6 17.9 19.8 1.6 80.6 75.3 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.7 15.9 1.2 80.6 71.8 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.9 20.5 2.0 88.0 79.0 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.3 14.2 1.1 73.8 68.4 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.4 17.3 19.7 1.9 89.4 78.8 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 16.4 17.0 19.8 1.8 81.7 77.6 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.6 17.7 20.3 2.1 91.3 80.9 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.4 18.2 1.6 86.6 77.1 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.0 18.0 18.9 1.8 88.9 76.9 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.4 16.2 1.0 74.6 67.8 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.5 19.0 19.6 1.8 88.0 77.6 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.8 18.4 1.1 76.9 68.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.9 15.3 1.2 79.8 70.8 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.2 18.6 20.7 1.9 86.5 77.9 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------