***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 60.1 99.5 65.4 237.3 94.2 84.3 33.9 42.8 47.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 70.3 101.5 62.7 200.1 90.8 82.2 23.4 44.1 60.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 69.4 109.6 61.0 215.7 92.8 83.2 26.2 37.7 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 74.2 102.8 63.3 219.3 88.1 83.3 28.9 37.7 45.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 44.4 67.9 63.6 210.3 88.9 82.6 16.4 22.7 36.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 46.5 62.2 65.8 179.1 85.2 78.3 26.6 36.0 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 55.4 101.1 64.7 206.4 93.6 84.7 26.8 39.6 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 88.2 121.0 63.4 171.0 81.8 76.0 30.6 46.3 73.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 71.7 85.8 65.0 206.7 89.2 82.1 28.1 33.1 54.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 69.9 90.8 72.3 183.8 85.7 79.1 30.9 44.8 63.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 50.1 73.2 54.6 200.9 87.8 79.7 21.9 31.7 44.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 48.8 67.6 47.9 182.0 83.9 77.4 20.0 33.5 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 50.3 62.6 55.0 195.7 88.6 80.7 20.8 27.8 35.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 77.7 105.4 68.6 174.2 87.4 78.0 39.2 54.6 74.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 59.7 85.2 52.1 208.2 88.5 79.5 13.3 31.0 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 49.9 74.1 55.2 207.1 88.8 81.4 14.7 29.4 43.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 64.7 85.8 62.5 198.3 90.3 81.3 34.1 45.2 52.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 81.1 101.8 81.5 166.9 84.1 78.4 34.4 45.5 54.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 69.5 116.3 60.7 201.7 90.1 82.2 25.2 35.4 58.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 59.4 71.1 73.3 143.6 77.9 72.0 33.0 41.9 62.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 63.5 100.8 61.1 222.1 91.2 82.6 27.3 40.3 46.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 62.0 81.5 59.0 191.7 88.8 80.0 31.0 39.8 53.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 73.3 96.7 59.5 203.9 90.1 82.7 21.9 37.9 65.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 74.1 95.9 71.7 181.7 88.8 80.6 36.6 53.2 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 55.4 80.4 71.4 222.4 92.1 83.2 25.8 35.2 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 49.1 70.0 41.2 180.4 86.6 77.7 19.8 28.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 57.8 142.9 73.1 232.4 94.1 84.1 33.4 40.8 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 54.2 70.0 57.8 211.9 87.6 81.3 14.0 17.7 35.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 80.1 92.3 78.9 154.2 79.6 75.0 50.3 61.3 74.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 59.1 86.9 63.4 210.6 92.3 83.1 18.1 31.0 42.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------