***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.2 8.5 4.0 74.8 70.9 56.3 0.0 1.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 12.3 6.1 117.4 71.0 55.9 1.0 5.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 9.6 12.2 4.8 99.1 70.1 56.5 2.4 8.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 6.7 18.1 5.0 87.8 77.4 59.6 0.2 4.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 3.8 8.1 4.7 91.3 78.1 54.3 0.5 2.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 2.7 8.9 6.3 95.5 74.1 58.8 0.1 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.4 11.3 5.5 102.6 66.2 54.2 0.3 4.7 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.5 19.5 6.5 115.1 69.7 54.0 1.8 7.3 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.3 9.0 4.9 94.5 74.3 54.0 0.2 2.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 11.3 6.5 102.8 68.5 53.3 0.1 4.3 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 3.6 6.1 4.4 100.6 76.1 54.2 0.3 2.8 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.2 8.2 4.3 106.5 73.6 55.1 0.0 1.5 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 2.6 9.9 4.4 100.3 74.5 58.3 0.0 0.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.7 6.5 90.9 68.5 54.2 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.3 8.9 4.8 85.8 78.9 58.8 0.0 0.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 3.4 7.1 4.3 94.4 77.5 56.9 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.1 13.5 6.2 115.3 67.9 55.1 0.7 4.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.1 14.6 8.4 98.0 67.1 54.0 1.0 4.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.4 12.5 5.9 117.3 73.0 55.8 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.4 11.6 9.0 102.4 65.7 54.1 0.3 3.3 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.1 10.0 4.1 83.9 74.7 56.6 1.0 2.4 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.6 6.0 105.8 69.4 55.0 0.8 7.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.5 15.0 5.2 106.5 74.1 54.1 2.6 5.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.0 15.6 6.7 93.7 67.6 53.8 1.1 4.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.6 7.3 5.4 85.0 71.7 56.6 0.4 2.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 2.3 4.7 3.2 98.9 70.2 57.7 0.0 1.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.4 11.5 5.0 79.7 69.7 55.9 2.4 6.2 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 3.3 14.8 5.0 90.8 80.2 59.8 0.0 1.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 18.9 9.0 101.0 67.1 55.3 0.7 9.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.4 11.0 5.6 107.6 69.0 55.9 0.9 5.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------