***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.1 21.2 7.2 126.8 76.0 60.8 0.4 3.0 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.1 12.5 7.0 113.3 72.0 58.4 0.8 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.7 18.6 7.8 144.3 78.2 62.2 1.0 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.2 18.4 8.5 167.4 81.9 64.4 0.3 1.3 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 3.2 8.5 8.3 129.8 75.7 60.2 0.6 1.7 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 14.5 11.1 122.0 79.0 61.4 0.2 2.1 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.7 14.8 7.7 123.6 74.3 57.3 0.5 2.4 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.2 17.9 10.0 109.2 75.2 59.7 3.7 7.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.0 14.0 8.7 123.7 75.8 59.0 1.1 5.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.3 11.0 117.0 75.6 58.8 1.1 9.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.8 11.7 7.1 116.3 78.6 60.8 0.3 3.2 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.3 11.6 6.2 96.3 74.9 60.5 0.0 2.0 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 2.6 7.5 7.7 109.0 78.3 62.8 0.4 1.5 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.7 16.2 10.4 121.2 71.1 59.1 5.8 9.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.0 18.5 7.7 195.1 88.0 64.1 0.3 2.3 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 5.2 9.2 7.7 131.7 79.6 63.7 0.2 0.9 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.4 7.7 6.7 103.6 71.6 51.6 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.0 14.8 14.3 123.1 74.2 60.8 1.6 5.8 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.9 12.0 6.8 117.2 72.1 59.9 1.7 3.4 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.6 15.0 15.5 127.0 75.7 61.6 3.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.8 17.7 7.1 122.5 76.8 61.1 0.1 5.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.0 12.8 6.3 107.2 73.6 55.3 1.4 2.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.8 13.0 7.1 126.3 72.9 61.8 1.8 4.3 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.6 20.2 11.1 127.1 73.7 60.7 1.8 10.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 13.2 18.3 9.5 143.9 78.2 61.5 1.1 6.1 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.4 11.7 5.6 102.8 76.5 62.2 0.4 3.5 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.6 18.1 9.7 145.3 78.1 62.2 1.1 3.9 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 8.1 15.4 8.2 181.5 85.0 65.5 0.7 3.1 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 15.6 14.7 121.7 72.5 60.8 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.2 11.9 7.6 130.3 74.9 60.1 1.4 2.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------