***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 17.7 23.6 15.0 199.5 81.4 66.1 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 23.8 14.5 147.0 77.1 60.0 2.6 5.4 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.1 26.3 13.9 175.7 79.8 65.4 2.6 5.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 29.2 40.8 13.6 196.0 83.0 70.2 6.2 9.6 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.3 16.9 15.2 188.0 80.6 66.2 2.3 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 19.9 26.6 15.6 160.1 78.0 64.0 3.3 8.6 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.5 20.8 14.8 147.9 79.7 60.9 2.3 5.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 19.7 20.5 15.1 148.9 75.3 64.7 7.7 14.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.1 21.4 16.4 179.4 79.9 68.0 4.7 9.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 27.1 17.3 152.7 77.0 63.4 5.8 11.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.3 26.9 11.6 163.0 79.1 62.1 3.4 12.8 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 16.3 21.6 10.7 155.0 76.7 65.2 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.0 19.9 13.5 181.6 79.1 67.8 0.9 4.8 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.5 18.4 15.1 149.8 75.7 58.7 4.8 9.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 21.2 27.0 9.3 158.4 78.4 64.4 4.0 8.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 14.5 18.8 12.5 179.3 78.1 66.1 2.2 7.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.8 22.9 14.0 135.2 75.6 56.0 4.0 8.5 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 28.2 20.3 145.6 75.2 62.5 4.9 8.6 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.7 24.1 14.0 156.5 76.8 61.4 2.1 6.3 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 17.2 19.0 20.0 140.9 74.8 62.9 5.1 10.8 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.1 25.6 14.0 186.2 82.4 67.2 2.6 9.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.0 20.6 14.7 154.9 77.0 60.2 3.2 6.8 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.6 17.6 13.7 176.3 78.8 64.1 2.3 4.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.2 26.3 16.5 151.3 74.0 60.6 7.5 13.8 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 21.7 29.2 17.6 204.8 82.6 65.5 1.7 11.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.3 21.3 9.6 167.7 76.5 65.8 1.0 5.8 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.6 30.2 17.9 205.6 82.7 66.4 4.8 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 18.7 25.9 10.9 169.2 79.2 66.6 3.0 5.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 27.7 20.4 143.5 74.3 61.3 7.8 16.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.4 15.8 15.0 165.1 80.5 62.2 2.1 5.4 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------