***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 23.3 47.7 39.2 431.7 97.5 91.1 0.9 6.1 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 17.4 61.5 35.1 350.0 94.6 90.0 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 16.0 54.6 34.4 342.2 92.7 89.0 0.9 4.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 21.6 33.6 36.2 325.2 94.0 89.0 1.3 5.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 15.4 53.2 35.4 334.8 95.1 88.8 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 8.9 37.3 32.8 289.1 95.2 87.1 0.3 1.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 18.7 45.5 36.8 376.7 97.1 90.7 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 20.7 37.7 31.8 256.6 88.7 82.8 2.5 6.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 17.3 49.9 34.9 346.2 96.5 90.0 0.8 3.9 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 23.5 44.2 37.6 297.5 92.1 87.0 1.7 7.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 24.0 45.4 31.6 329.6 94.4 87.5 1.4 4.4 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 13.1 44.8 26.7 293.3 92.9 84.4 0.0 1.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 14.5 35.6 29.4 316.6 94.4 87.4 0.4 5.4 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 34.6 54.3 36.6 269.4 91.9 86.1 0.4 4.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 9.6 27.7 30.3 315.5 93.5 86.5 0.1 1.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 12.9 51.6 30.7 331.6 95.5 88.2 1.3 3.2 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 20.5 64.0 35.6 381.6 95.4 91.7 1.3 7.4 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 30.8 45.7 38.6 259.1 88.6 85.1 0.7 9.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 22.2 49.9 34.0 332.4 93.8 89.3 0.5 5.3 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 18.9 22.7 28.8 182.6 79.8 77.6 4.7 9.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 23.0 42.2 35.9 382.6 96.8 89.9 1.2 7.3 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 18.5 30.7 31.9 330.7 93.5 89.3 2.3 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 25.6 59.2 33.5 307.2 93.2 88.1 0.3 0.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 19.6 42.3 37.5 290.3 93.1 87.5 1.3 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 19.8 34.2 38.9 366.3 95.2 90.2 0.3 8.0 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 13.1 24.2 22.7 269.3 90.5 83.0 0.4 2.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 25.0 45.8 40.5 408.2 96.9 91.1 0.4 3.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 9.4 27.9 33.7 314.8 93.3 88.2 0.8 3.2 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 37.0 51.1 34.7 218.4 85.4 80.5 5.8 13.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 21.6 43.8 35.2 353.9 94.9 89.6 1.4 4.6 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------