***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 27.7 27.3 28.0 -1.7 15.1 23.0 28.4 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 27.9 27.7 28.4 -1.3 21.4 29.9 28.2 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 27.2 26.8 28.0 -1.6 17.1 24.2 28.3 29.1 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 20.3 19.7 26.1 -2.2 11.3 15.1 21.1 22.6 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 27.7 27.2 26.2 -2.0 13.1 17.7 28.5 29.7 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.3 -1.7 17.3 21.3 27.0 28.6 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 27.8 27.4 28.2 -1.3 19.8 28.5 27.8 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 16.2 16.0 24.7 -1.6 18.8 22.4 16.5 17.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 27.2 26.9 26.6 -1.8 13.7 19.8 28.5 28.9 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 27.1 26.8 25.2 -1.7 16.2 21.1 27.6 28.9 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 27.3 27.0 25.9 -1.7 16.1 20.5 28.0 29.2 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 26.6 26.3 25.7 -1.7 17.3 21.4 27.4 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 27.7 27.3 25.3 -1.9 15.9 19.6 28.0 30.0 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 27.3 26.9 26.3 -1.3 20.8 27.3 27.5 28.8 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 28.1 27.5 27.1 -2.1 10.9 16.1 29.4 30.1 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 28.5 28.1 25.7 -1.9 15.2 18.7 28.7 30.7 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 27.3 27.0 28.1 -1.1 25.5 33.0 27.6 28.5 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 26.3 26.1 24.4 -1.5 19.2 23.5 26.7 27.9 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 27.3 26.9 28.4 -1.2 22.8 30.6 27.8 28.6 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 22.4 22.3 22.6 -1.4 21.0 25.1 22.6 24.1 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 27.2 26.7 27.4 -1.8 13.9 19.7 28.2 29.2 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.9 -1.2 25.6 31.3 28.1 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.2 28.0 -1.2 23.3 30.4 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 26.8 26.3 26.2 -1.4 19.1 24.6 27.8 28.5 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 27.7 27.2 26.5 -1.8 13.7 19.6 28.4 29.3 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 27.3 26.9 25.3 -1.9 15.0 18.6 27.7 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 27.3 26.9 27.3 -1.6 15.6 23.0 27.9 28.8 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 28.1 27.6 26.5 -2.2 11.1 14.9 29.1 29.9 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 22.0 21.6 23.6 -1.3 21.9 25.8 21.8 23.8 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 27.4 27.0 28.4 -1.4 19.1 27.4 28.1 29.0 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------