***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.6 28.2 -1.1 34.9 39.6 28.5 29.3 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.8 28.9 -0.4 49.0 46.5 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.7 28.4 -0.9 39.5 40.9 27.4 29.1 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 20.7 19.4 26.5 -1.7 25.7 31.4 21.3 22.7 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.6 27.8 26.5 -1.4 31.8 35.6 28.4 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 29.7 27.4 24.5 -1.3 34.9 37.3 26.9 29.5 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.6 28.6 -0.5 48.1 45.6 27.4 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.8 17.8 25.1 -0.9 41.3 41.7 15.7 18.4 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.2 26.7 -1.2 35.7 37.9 27.8 29.5 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.6 28.3 25.5 -1.0 40.3 40.3 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.1 28.7 26.2 -1.1 37.8 38.9 28.1 29.7 30.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.7 28.6 26.2 -1.0 39.1 40.7 26.3 29.3 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.8 28.5 25.6 -1.3 35.7 37.5 28.1 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.7 26.7 -0.6 43.5 44.3 27.3 29.0 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 27.9 26.8 27.0 -1.7 23.1 30.5 28.1 29.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.6 29.6 26.0 -1.3 34.6 36.6 28.9 31.4 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.3 28.5 -0.2 52.4 48.7 26.9 28.1 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.6 27.9 24.9 -0.8 44.3 43.3 26.1 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.6 28.9 -0.4 47.2 46.5 27.5 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.4 23.0 -0.7 46.2 44.1 22.1 24.7 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.6 27.5 27.6 -1.2 34.5 37.0 27.4 29.3 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.8 28.4 -0.4 48.7 47.1 27.5 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.2 28.6 -0.5 44.7 45.8 27.3 28.8 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.2 26.5 -0.8 42.7 43.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.8 27.2 26.6 -1.4 30.3 35.9 27.7 29.6 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.5 28.0 25.7 -1.3 35.1 36.4 27.7 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.9 28.1 27.4 -1.1 34.7 39.6 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 28.3 26.9 26.7 -1.7 25.0 31.1 29.1 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.7 24.0 -0.6 46.1 45.1 21.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.4 28.8 -0.6 44.9 44.2 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------