***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 28.1 27.8 27.6 -2.2 20.6 26.8 28.1 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 27.6 28.1 28.2 -1.7 30.0 32.6 28.2 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 27.9 27.7 27.8 -2.1 22.4 28.8 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 20.4 19.8 25.9 -2.8 15.8 21.3 20.6 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 28.1 27.6 25.8 -2.6 18.3 23.8 28.4 30.2 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 26.6 26.2 24.0 -2.1 20.3 26.3 26.9 28.9 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 27.2 27.7 28.0 -1.8 26.4 31.3 28.0 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 15.7 16.0 24.4 -2.0 23.3 28.3 16.4 17.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 27.8 27.2 26.1 -2.4 19.7 25.8 27.6 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 27.2 26.8 24.8 -2.2 21.1 27.2 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 27.3 26.9 25.5 -2.3 21.6 26.0 27.7 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.9 26.1 25.4 -2.2 22.1 27.2 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 27.9 27.2 24.9 -2.4 17.4 24.7 28.0 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.0 -1.8 26.3 31.9 27.6 28.8 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 28.5 27.9 26.5 -2.8 13.5 20.8 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 28.5 27.8 25.3 -2.4 19.1 24.4 28.7 30.9 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.7 27.4 28.0 -1.5 29.7 34.8 27.6 28.6 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 26.3 26.1 24.2 -2.0 23.5 29.5 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 27.4 27.4 28.2 -1.7 30.8 33.0 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 22.1 22.0 22.4 -1.8 27.5 30.2 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.1 26.9 -2.4 19.5 25.7 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.3 28.1 27.8 -1.6 30.5 34.0 28.2 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.8 -1.7 29.9 33.0 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 27.0 26.8 25.9 -1.9 23.8 30.1 27.2 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 28.1 27.6 26.1 -2.5 18.9 24.7 28.2 29.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 27.6 27.0 25.0 -2.4 16.5 24.0 27.8 29.5 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 27.8 27.5 26.8 -2.2 21.2 26.9 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 28.1 27.6 26.2 -2.8 15.2 20.8 28.4 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.3 21.4 23.3 -1.8 26.5 30.9 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 27.4 27.4 28.2 -1.9 26.8 30.8 27.7 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------