***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.7 28.2 -1.4 28.4 33.7 28.0 28.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.0 28.3 28.6 -0.9 37.7 39.7 28.0 28.7 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.5 28.3 -1.2 33.5 35.4 27.5 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 20.2 20.0 26.7 -1.8 25.8 27.7 20.3 22.0 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 27.8 27.8 26.4 -1.7 26.3 29.4 28.0 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.8 26.6 24.7 -1.5 29.0 32.1 26.9 28.2 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.8 28.5 -0.9 37.8 39.1 27.6 28.6 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.3 16.5 25.0 -1.3 30.0 34.3 16.6 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.4 27.5 26.6 -1.6 26.0 30.9 27.6 28.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.4 25.4 -1.4 29.2 33.1 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.2 26.0 -1.5 28.4 31.2 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 26.9 26.9 25.9 -1.5 28.4 32.0 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 27.6 27.7 25.3 -1.8 26.6 28.9 28.1 28.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.6 26.5 -0.9 37.8 39.9 27.4 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 28.6 28.0 27.4 -1.7 27.4 29.1 28.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 28.5 28.1 25.9 -1.7 26.5 29.3 28.5 29.8 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.6 28.5 -0.7 40.4 42.2 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 26.7 26.3 24.7 -1.1 33.7 36.9 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.8 28.1 28.6 -0.9 39.1 40.0 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.4 22.6 23.0 -1.0 33.7 38.4 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.1 27.5 -1.6 27.4 31.0 27.4 28.5 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.1 28.2 -0.8 41.3 41.1 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.0 27.8 28.2 -0.8 39.6 40.5 27.6 28.0 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.4 -1.1 34.3 37.2 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 27.8 27.6 26.8 -1.5 28.3 31.9 27.7 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 27.3 27.5 25.5 -1.9 25.8 27.5 27.9 28.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.5 -1.3 29.6 34.5 27.8 28.4 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 28.1 27.5 26.9 -1.9 24.7 27.1 28.5 30.1 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.3 23.9 -0.9 35.9 39.6 22.2 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.9 27.9 28.6 -1.0 35.8 37.8 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------