***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 27.5 28.4 27.8 -2.0 24.5 26.1 29.1 30.2 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 27.7 28.2 27.7 -2.1 25.5 27.0 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 26.8 26.2 27.7 -2.0 21.7 26.1 28.9 29.6 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 19.8 19.2 25.5 -2.5 15.3 19.5 21.1 23.3 25.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 27.5 26.9 26.1 -2.2 20.1 23.3 28.6 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 25.7 25.6 23.9 -1.9 26.0 26.7 26.4 29.0 30.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 27.4 27.9 27.7 -2.0 27.0 27.0 28.5 30.2 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 15.7 16.0 24.2 -2.0 26.2 26.3 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.0 26.9 -2.0 24.0 26.1 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 27.1 27.3 25.0 -2.0 25.5 26.2 27.7 29.7 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 27.2 26.8 25.9 -2.0 23.9 25.4 28.0 30.1 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 26.3 26.6 25.3 -2.0 25.1 25.2 27.6 29.0 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 26.9 26.7 25.4 -2.0 24.8 26.0 28.3 30.4 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.1 26.0 -1.9 23.8 26.9 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 27.6 26.9 27.5 -2.3 15.3 19.5 28.7 30.7 32.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 27.8 27.3 25.8 -2.1 23.6 24.3 28.5 30.8 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 27.4 28.2 27.4 -1.9 28.3 28.7 28.4 29.6 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 26.2 25.7 24.0 -2.0 23.9 26.3 27.2 28.5 30.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 26.9 27.0 27.7 -2.0 25.2 27.6 28.3 29.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 21.6 22.4 22.1 -2.0 26.1 25.9 22.7 24.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 26.9 26.6 27.6 -2.1 23.1 25.5 28.5 29.9 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.9 27.3 -2.0 27.7 27.6 28.9 30.0 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 27.1 26.3 27.5 -1.9 24.1 28.0 28.3 29.5 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.9 26.0 25.9 -2.0 23.5 26.9 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.9 26.8 26.6 -2.1 22.9 25.2 28.9 30.7 31.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 26.7 26.7 24.9 -2.1 23.8 24.2 27.2 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 27.0 26.5 27.3 -1.9 24.4 26.9 28.3 29.5 31.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 27.3 27.0 26.3 -2.5 15.0 18.3 28.4 30.5 32.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 21.5 21.8 23.2 -1.9 25.4 27.3 22.3 24.2 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.8 -2.1 23.9 26.1 29.0 29.9 31.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------