***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.6 15.7 18.0 -0.5 37.5 37.6 15.5 16.0 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.7 18.2 -0.3 42.6 43.3 15.2 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 17.4 17.6 17.9 -0.5 35.5 36.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 12.8 12.6 15.8 -0.8 23.9 29.3 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.7 15.8 -0.7 29.9 32.9 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.8 14.3 -0.7 27.8 31.2 12.8 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 18.3 -0.4 41.3 41.3 15.4 16.2 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.4 8.1 13.9 -0.8 25.8 29.9 8.6 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.0 16.0 -0.6 31.5 34.1 15.1 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.0 14.4 -0.7 29.6 32.2 15.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.4 -0.6 32.8 33.7 14.5 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.8 -0.7 28.3 30.6 12.6 13.2 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.7 14.5 -0.7 30.0 32.0 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.4 15.8 16.1 -0.5 34.8 37.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 15.6 15.7 16.7 -1.0 23.2 25.6 16.2 16.4 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.2 -0.7 28.6 31.9 15.3 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.3 18.0 0.0 49.9 51.0 16.1 16.3 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.1 13.7 -0.6 31.2 33.0 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 18.2 -0.3 43.3 43.6 15.6 15.7 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 8.9 9.1 12.0 -0.8 26.2 29.3 9.3 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 14.8 14.8 17.1 -0.7 30.4 33.4 15.0 15.4 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.1 17.8 -0.2 44.8 46.2 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.1 17.8 -0.3 42.4 42.3 15.0 15.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.6 15.8 -0.6 33.4 35.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.0 16.5 -0.5 32.8 36.4 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.3 -0.8 27.8 28.0 13.9 14.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 17.3 -0.4 36.4 38.7 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.2 -1.0 21.5 25.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.2 -0.7 30.6 32.1 12.6 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.6 15.8 18.3 -0.4 39.1 39.5 15.6 16.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------