***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.3 17.4 -0.5 45.2 42.0 14.8 15.5 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.3 17.8 -0.2 49.6 48.1 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.4 17.5 17.3 -0.5 42.6 42.9 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.8 11.9 15.1 -1.0 30.3 34.0 12.3 12.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.8 15.0 -0.8 34.7 37.7 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.4 13.8 -0.7 35.5 38.1 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.2 17.7 -0.3 47.8 46.2 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.9 13.4 -0.7 37.2 38.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.1 15.1 -0.7 35.2 38.8 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.0 13.7 -0.7 37.0 39.0 13.8 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.4 14.8 -0.7 37.0 39.7 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.8 14.4 -0.7 34.8 37.5 11.7 12.8 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.8 13.8 -0.8 33.1 35.9 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.0 15.4 -0.5 39.0 41.5 14.8 15.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 14.8 14.1 15.7 -1.2 24.4 30.1 14.6 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.3 14.6 -0.8 33.6 36.5 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.8 17.5 0.1 57.3 52.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.1 13.1 -0.6 36.9 39.8 12.1 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.3 17.7 -0.2 49.5 48.2 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.7 11.8 -0.6 37.2 40.1 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.5 13.7 16.3 -0.7 38.1 39.1 13.6 14.5 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 13.4 14.6 17.3 0.0 54.7 50.4 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.2 17.2 -0.3 45.8 45.9 13.8 14.3 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.5 15.1 -0.5 38.6 41.0 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.2 15.6 -0.6 40.3 39.9 14.1 14.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.4 13.8 -0.9 31.7 34.4 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.8 16.5 -0.5 43.9 42.2 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 12.6 12.2 15.5 -1.2 26.7 30.7 12.5 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.3 12.7 -0.6 36.8 40.0 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.2 17.8 -0.4 46.4 45.4 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------