***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.0 18.4 -0.2 44.5 47.8 15.5 16.6 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.4 18.7 0.1 52.6 53.2 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.4 18.3 -0.1 48.5 49.3 17.3 18.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.2 16.4 -0.5 46.1 43.2 12.4 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.1 16.3 -0.3 50.2 46.8 13.9 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.8 14.9 -0.4 43.9 44.0 13.3 13.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.6 18.7 0.0 51.6 52.1 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.0 14.4 -0.5 45.2 42.6 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.2 16.5 -0.2 51.3 48.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 15.0 -0.3 48.8 45.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.6 15.9 -0.2 50.2 47.0 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.8 15.4 -0.4 45.5 42.8 13.2 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.1 15.1 -0.3 46.9 46.2 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.1 16.6 -0.1 53.0 50.3 16.1 17.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.1 16.4 17.0 -0.7 41.5 39.4 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.4 15.8 -0.3 47.9 45.5 16.1 16.4 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.6 18.6 0.5 62.2 59.4 16.1 17.1 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.5 14.3 -0.2 47.8 47.6 13.8 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.5 18.6 0.1 52.7 53.2 15.9 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.3 12.7 -0.4 43.7 43.6 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.7 17.5 -0.2 48.1 48.0 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 18.3 0.3 59.6 57.1 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 0.0 51.9 52.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.7 16.3 -0.1 50.0 49.5 15.9 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.0 16.9 -0.1 47.0 48.7 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.7 14.9 -0.5 41.2 40.6 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.8 17.7 -0.1 46.4 49.4 15.2 15.9 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.3 16.7 -0.7 41.2 39.6 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.4 13.8 -0.2 47.8 47.5 12.3 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.4 18.7 -0.1 49.5 50.4 15.9 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------