***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.1 18.9 0.0 52.9 53.0 14.7 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 15.9 15.4 18.7 -0.1 48.7 49.3 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 18.4 17.5 18.6 -0.3 45.4 46.4 16.9 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 14.2 13.5 16.5 -0.5 43.2 43.5 12.7 14.1 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.8 14.6 16.6 -0.5 44.0 43.4 13.7 14.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.6 12.7 14.4 -0.8 33.8 33.6 12.6 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 16.4 16.2 18.9 -0.1 49.0 47.9 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.2 14.2 -0.8 34.3 35.5 8.1 9.1 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 15.6 15.3 17.1 -0.5 44.0 43.4 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.0 15.0 -0.7 35.0 36.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.5 14.9 16.0 -0.6 38.2 38.9 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.8 12.7 15.1 -0.7 38.4 38.5 12.5 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.8 13.6 15.1 -0.7 35.1 36.4 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.4 15.8 16.7 -0.5 41.8 42.2 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.4 17.9 -0.7 40.4 38.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.3 15.4 15.9 -0.6 37.1 38.4 15.2 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 16.7 16.7 18.6 0.2 52.7 54.0 15.7 16.5 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.3 13.9 -0.8 33.6 34.0 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 16.0 15.7 18.6 -0.1 47.0 48.2 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 8.7 8.3 11.8 -1.1 24.4 25.8 9.3 10.5 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 15.9 15.3 18.2 -0.5 42.9 44.1 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 15.5 15.0 18.3 -0.3 45.3 45.8 14.7 15.3 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 15.7 15.4 18.3 -0.2 45.3 46.6 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.6 16.4 -0.6 39.7 40.1 15.5 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 15.7 15.7 17.8 -0.1 52.8 51.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.2 14.5 -0.6 37.2 38.7 14.1 14.6 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 15.7 15.9 18.3 0.1 54.6 54.2 14.2 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.2 17.0 -0.8 36.2 36.4 14.0 14.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 12.1 12.0 13.3 -1.0 26.8 28.4 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 16.0 15.8 18.9 -0.2 47.4 47.0 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------