***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 49.1 35.7 31.0 69.3 46.3 41.0 31.9 42.8 50.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 51.3 39.1 30.1 74.5 45.2 42.5 20.0 43.1 60.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 41.3 30.7 32.6 70.8 46.5 41.5 24.3 32.1 57.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 25.3 31.9 24.8 52.4 37.8 33.7 27.4 40.4 49.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 14.6 22.1 24.8 56.6 40.3 35.8 17.3 24.6 34.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 19.5 30.9 31.4 61.9 40.4 34.1 27.0 36.8 47.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 43.7 38.8 31.7 77.7 48.5 45.0 26.8 39.6 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 37.6 31.0 28.6 54.2 33.5 32.0 30.8 51.0 73.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 21.1 30.4 27.7 58.1 40.3 35.6 26.3 31.4 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 30.5 31.1 31.5 56.3 35.8 33.1 29.1 44.4 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 26.2 24.8 23.3 55.2 37.1 34.7 22.0 38.3 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.7 22.6 22.7 55.1 36.7 34.7 21.8 32.0 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 17.5 27.9 24.6 59.6 40.5 36.0 21.2 31.8 42.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 57.7 42.0 42.0 73.3 45.2 40.6 36.8 47.9 70.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 18.2 16.7 20.3 49.0 39.0 34.4 15.1 32.1 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 18.7 18.9 23.0 56.0 37.3 34.2 15.6 32.4 43.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 48.5 45.5 34.0 84.0 52.7 47.0 31.6 44.7 53.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 32.0 36.4 39.0 61.5 36.5 33.8 34.4 45.7 61.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 46.8 33.9 31.6 75.5 45.5 42.5 24.6 37.9 57.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 28.5 34.5 39.4 63.2 35.0 33.0 33.4 42.9 63.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 26.7 30.1 28.3 61.5 42.7 37.4 27.6 37.1 48.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 45.0 40.1 35.7 84.7 50.6 46.4 31.6 39.3 57.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.1 34.6 34.4 77.2 47.4 42.6 24.3 37.8 67.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 59.1 42.6 37.2 66.8 42.7 38.4 36.6 51.3 65.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 40.2 31.2 33.0 70.0 44.9 40.9 23.8 33.1 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 15.5 25.0 19.6 53.9 37.6 33.5 20.4 27.3 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 45.9 39.2 33.9 71.7 46.2 41.3 30.4 40.8 52.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 16.8 16.0 23.0 51.3 38.1 33.9 14.2 23.2 34.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 45.5 49.4 41.4 64.1 36.2 34.4 47.4 61.2 83.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 38.8 22.8 31.1 73.8 44.8 42.3 15.7 31.2 41.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------